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5 Mistakes to Avoid if You Want to Make Good Quantitative Risk Assessments

Sean Salleh 10 Jun 2013 Risk and uncertainty

Numbers don’t lie. It’s the people using them that are responsible for falsehoods, distortions, or simply mistakes! Yet numbers have several attractions: you can compare them (as long as you’re comparing ‘apples with apples’, set objectives,...

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Business Modeling Needs More than Spreadsheet Dinosaurs

Sean Salleh 07 Jun 2013 Modeling methods

Huge body, tiny brain. Those were prominent characteristics of dinosaurs and part of their DNA. Those that were unable to cope with changes died out, although they had a good run – about 180 million years, all told. Information technology has...

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Estimation of Mutual Information

Lonnie Chrisman 31 May 2013 Analytics and OR, Risk and uncertainty

Abstract: This article explores the difficult problem of estimating the mutual information between two variables from a sample of data. I use examples to demonstrate the challenges, and introduce a new algorithm for estimating mutual information along with an explicit...

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Never Tell Me the Odds?

Rob Brown 06 Mar 2013 Risk and uncertainty

In my last post, I discussed the meaning of expected value (EV) and how it's useful for comparing the values of choices we could make when the outcomes we face with each choice vary across a range of probabilities....

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A Brief Explanation of Expected Value

Rob Brown 07 Feb 2013 Risk and uncertainty

When helping people analyze the risks they face in complex decisions, I frequently receive requests for an explanation of expected value, as expected value is a measure commonly used to compare the value of alternate risky options. I've found...

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Displaying indexes in balloon help

Lonnie Chrisman 18 Jan 2013 Analytica tips

In a meeting today, Paul Sanford suggested that it would be nice if Analytica would show the indexes of a variable when you hover over its node.  "I know how I can do that right now," I volunteered. I...

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Odd Couples: How Ice Skaters and Fireflies Tell Us Something About the Language of the Universe

Rob Brown 02 Dec 2012

The universe has always possessed the language it needs to conduct its own affairs. I don't think it could be otherwise. Because my daughter participates in competitive figure skating, my wife and I spend a lot of time at...

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Seeking Principal Analyst and Consulting Lead

Sean Salleh 13 Sep 2012 News

Lumina is seeking an experienced consultant in energy or environment to be a leader in our consulting group. You must have: A graduate degree in science, engineering, operations research, or other quantitative discipline Several years experience working as a lead...

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Analytica 4.4.3 Patch Release

Lonnie Chrisman 28 Aug 2012 Analytica tips, News

Today we announce the Analytica and ADE 4.4.3 patch release. The patch has an extensive number of fixes and improvements since the 4.4.2 release. We recommend that all Analytica and ADE 4.4 users install and start using 4.4.3. When you already have an earlier 4.4...

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Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas with Reverend Bayes

Rob Brown 06 Aug 2012 Analytica tips, Risk and uncertainty

A trip to Vegas, an evil clown, a bizarre coin, and a minister. What could go wrong? I commented in a footnote of an earlier post that one of my favorite - no, morally obligated - questions to ask when...

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